Dr. Roslyn Prinsley never imagined that stepping outside her home in Canberra would feel like walking into a smoke-filled abyss. But during Australia’s devastating bushfire season in 2019-2020, even in places untouched by flames, the air was so thick with smoke that breathing felt impossible.
“I asked myself, what are we doing here in the 21st century? We can’t actually go outside and breathe fresh air in one of the cleanest countries in the world,” she remembers thinking. “We can’t let this keep going.”
Dr. Roslyn Prinsley is the Head of Disaster Solutions at the Australian National University’s Institute for Climate, Energy & Disaster Solutions (ICEDS). Finding innovative ways to fight wildfires is part of her daily work – a task that has become more urgent than ever as wildfires grow increasingly frequent in Australia and across the globe due to climate change.
Wildfires are projected to rise 30% by the end of 2050, according to a report by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) and its partner GRID-Arendal.
One of the recent wildfires in California became the most destructive in Los Angeles history, killing at least 29 people—a number expected to rise—and reducing over 10,000 homes to ash. A perfect set of environmental factors such as long-term drought, preceding heavy rainfall, and hurricane-force Santa Ana winds combined at the worst possible moment.
All of this turned the regular wildfire into what’s called a firestorm.
The Science Behind Firestorms
Imagine towering flames that leap from hillside to hillside, consuming homes, businesses, and dry brush with explosive force. Smoke turning the sky into an eerie, suffocating orange, casting an apocalyptic glow over the city. This scene from a 2025 firestorm in Los Angeles could become more common in the warming world. And scientists around the globe are racing against time to better understand the phenomenon.
A firestorm similar to the one that destroyed Los Angeles neighborhoods is an intense and destructive fire that creates its own wind system and can unleash “fire tornadoes” and “fire clouds.” It forms when a large and intense fire generates such extreme heat that it alters local atmospheric conditions. As flames consume vast amounts of oxygen, surrounding air rushes in to replace it, fueling the fire even further. This process can lead to hurricane-force winds that fan the flames and spread embers over great distances. In some cases, the heat from a firestorm causes the air above it to rise rapidly and forms towering pyrocumulus or pyrocumulonimbus clouds – something NASA refers to as the “fire-breathing dragon of clouds.” As the fire expands, rising currents of hot air carry smoke and debris into the lower stratosphere, leading to the formation of even larger fire clouds. They can generate dry lightning and spark new fires miles away. Unlike regular clouds, these seldom produce rain to aid in extinguishing a wildfire.
By Eric Neitzel
The turbulent winds within the firestorm can also create fire whirls—spinning vortexes of flames and debris that act like tornadoes. They typically last only a few minutes and grow no taller than 150 feet (45.7 meters). However, with wind speeds reaching up to 140 miles (225 km) per hour, they can cause significant destruction to anything in their way.
While wildfires can be intense, they typically rely on external conditions like dry weather, high winds, and low humidity to fuel their spread. They tend to remain within the boundaries of their ignition sources, and while they may cause significant damage, they do not always exhibit extreme behaviors. Firestorms, on the other hand, are a far more complex and dangerous phenomenon. Unlike typical wildfires, which are influenced by external weather conditions, firestorms sustain themselves by continuously generating their own wind patterns. This makes them highly unpredictable and incredibly destructive.
Extreme wildfires have become twice as common in the last 20 years. According to a recent study, since 2017, Earth has seen six of the most extreme wildfire years, with 2022 being the only exception. Other studies have echoed the same warning – the world is on fire. Extreme wildfires are growing stronger, releasing twice the energy of past fires and causing more severe damage while increasing forest carbon emissions.
Ecological and Environmental Consequences of Firestorms
One of the most insidious effects of firestorms and wildfires is worsening air quality. The World Health Organization (WHO) reports that air pollution causes 7 million premature deaths annually. A Lancet Planetary Health study found it remains the leading environmental health threat, responsible for 6.7 million deaths in 2019.
“Wildfire smoke is about 10 times as toxic as the regular air pollution from the burning of fossil fuels, and there’s no safe level of exposure,” Stanford experts said.
Wildfires release pollutants like particulate matter (PM2.5), carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, and ozone because of the chemical reactions and combustion processes that occur when vegetation, such as trees, grasses, and shrubs, burn.
Smoke can travel thousands of miles away, and these pollutants can affect air quality in regions far away from fire sites. For example, smoke from the Siberian wildfires in summer 2024 has traveled across the Pacific to Alaska, the BBC reported. This fall, smoke from western U.S. wildfires has been carried across the country – to cities like Washington DC and New York, NASA warned.
Harmful particles are not confined to outdoor air – indoor air pollution can also pose serious health risks. Particulate matter can penetrate deep into the lungs, enter the bloodstream, and cause various health issues, such as heightened inflammation and an increased risk of heart disease and stroke. The October 2003 wildfire in San Diego raised fine particulate matter (PM) levels above federal standards, along with increased carbon monoxide and ozone precursors. Health data showed a rise in emergency room visits for asthma, respiratory issues, eye irritation, and smoke inhalation. A study in 2017 found that short-term exposure to wildfire-specific PM2.5 during smoke waves was linked to a 7.2% increased risk of respiratory admissions in the elderly in the Western United States.
Some groups are particularly vulnerable to worsening air quality. Increasing research links PM exposure to reduced lung function, impaired physical growth, and neurological and metabolic issues in children, according to Children’s Environmental Health Collaborative. Early exposure to wildfire smoke may also disrupt immune function and weaken lung capacity during adolescence. Infants and young people inhale more air relative to body weight, and their respiratory systems develop until about age 21. This makes them especially vulnerable to wildfire smoke.
How much exposure you get matters: the more you breathe smoke, the more harmful it is. A recent study revealed that exposure to wildfire smoke led to the premature deaths of tens of thousands of Californians between 2008 and 2018.
Although research on the long-term health effects of wildfire smoke exposure is limited, some evidence does exist. “Wildfire smoke increases the risk of developing lung cancer the same way that pollution does by increasing particulate matter 2.5, although wildfire smoke leads to much higher levels of particulate matter 2.5 than pollution,” Amy Cummings MD, PhD, a thoracic oncologist at the UCLA Health Jonsson Comprehensive Cancer Center, told UCLA Health.
The 2024 study published in the journal JAMA Neurology found that long-term exposure to wildfire-related fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is significantly associated with a higher risk of dementia, with a stronger impact on vulnerable groups, including younger seniors, racial minorities, and those in high-poverty areas.
Exposure to wildfire smoke can also contribute to mental health issues. Studies suggest that it can lead to anxiety, depression, and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), especially in individuals exposed to the smoke for extended periods or those who have experienced the trauma of wildfires firsthand. For example, a University of Colorado Boulder study found that each additional day of exposure to wildfire smoke and polluted air increases the risk of mental health issues in youth. An Emory University study analyzing 1.9 million emergency visits across five western U.S. states (2007–2018) found that wildfire smoke events led to a 6.3% rise in anxiety-related ER visits, with women, girls, and older adults most affected.
Apart from immense human loss and damage to infrastructure, firestorms cause severe ecosystem devastation by destroying habitats and leading to significant biodiversity loss. For example, the 2019-2020 Australian bushfires, often referred to as “Black Summer,” killed an estimated 3 billion animals. Many species, including koalas and orangutans, were pushed closer to extinction. During California fires in 2020, the Sequoia National Forest lost over 10,000 giant sequoias, some over 2,000 years old – that’s 10% of the world’s giant sequoias. The Siberian wildfires destroyed habitats for reindeer and musk oxen, threatening indigenous communities relying on them.
Ash and debris from the fire also contaminate water sources, further harming both aquatic life and the surrounding environment. Wildfires, like the 2020 North Complex Fire, 2018 Camp Fire, and 2017 Tubbs Fire, significantly damaged water infrastructure, causing pollutants such as plastic, benzene, and toxic chemicals to contaminate water supplies. Wildfires also lead to soil erosion and the release of harmful nutrients into water systems, which can fuel algal blooms and further degrade water quality.
The Role of Climate Change in Firestorm Frequency and Intensity
Climate change has driven a 300% rise in wildfires over the past 30 years, and rising temperatures are likely to make them even worse.
Since 1880, the Earth’s average temperature has risen by more than 1° Celsius (1.8° Fahrenheit). While this might seem like a small change, it represents a significant shift in the planet’s climate. Reports suggest that the temperature could rise by 2.7°C by the century’s end.
Climate change contributes to firestorms by creating conditions that make wildfires more frequent, intense, and unpredictable – Khatuna Gigauri, Doctor of Life Sciences and Associate Professor at the Georgian Institute of Public Affairs in Tbilisi, Georgia, explained. As the planet warms, temperatures rise, and precipitation decreases, leading to prolonged periods of drought. These conditions turn forests, grasslands, and other natural areas into highly flammable fuel for wildfires, she said. When these fires occur, they have the potential to escalate quickly, especially under the influence of high winds and dry air.
Last month, wildfires in the Los Angeles area, including the Palisades and Eaton fires, were fueled by climate change-driven weather patterns. Research from World Weather Attribution found that global warming made the conditions for these fires about 35% more likely. The wildfires were worsened by a mix of drought and intense rainfall, both of which were influenced by climate change. While heavy rain last winter caused dense plant growth, the subsequent drought dried out the vegetation, turning it into fuel for the fires.
Climate change has disrupted rainfall patterns, leading to heavier downpours in some areas. While this might seem like a positive development for preventing fires, the reality is more complicated. A 2021 study in California found that increased precipitation in the months leading up to wildfire seasons can fuel vegetation growth and that fires can then burn larger areas when this vegetation dries out. Six years with high wildfire activity in the state were preceded by wet seasons with above-average rainfall.
Climate change has created longer and more intense fire seasons. A 2022 study revealed the fire weather season, which typically sees the highest occurrence of fires, has already grown considerably in many areas since the 1980s. On a global scale, this season has lengthened by an average of 27%, with the most significant increases in the Amazon, the Mediterranean, and the western forests of North America.
Climate change is causing more lightning strikes. As the planet heats up, the atmosphere holds more moisture, creating conditions for stronger thunderstorms. These storms, which involve rising warm air and colder air at higher altitudes, generate more electrical charge and lead to more frequent lightning strikes. Researchers have determined that for every 1ºC rise in global temperatures, lightning strikes will increase by approximately 12%. This, in turn, increases the chances of firestorms worldwide.
“If global temperatures reach upwards of 2°C above the pre-industrial average, fire weather conditions will be virtually unrecognizable compared with those in the recent history of most world regions,” Stefan H Doerr, Professor of Geography and Director of the Centre for Wildfire Research, Swansea University and his colleagues concluded in 2022. Climate change has already doubled the likelihood of conditions fueling devastating wildfires in Canada in 2023 and has been linked to more frequent and intense fires in California.
Scientists explain that we still don’t fully understand how wildfires change the climate. Our climate system has many balancing factors, and wildfires can lead to both warming and cooling effects. Some experts believe the cooling effects are stronger, while others argue the warming effects are more significant. Experts agree that firestorms release significant pollutants into the upper atmosphere, but their full impact — whether they damage the ozone layer or temporarily cool the planet by increasing atmospheric reflectivity — remains uncertain. Research, including a study on Australia’s 2020 wildfires, suggests their smoke can reflect solar radiation like volcanic eruptions, yet the overall balance between fire-driven warming and cooling effects is not fully known. The net effect of wildfires on climate depends on factors like fire intensity, location, frequency, and how ecosystems recover afterward.
One thing is clear though – wildfires and climate change create a dangerous cycle. Rising temperatures and droughts make wildfires worse, and these fires release carbon dioxide, which further warms the planet. As forests burn, they lose their ability to absorb CO₂, making the problem even worse and fueling more fires. In 2023, Canada’s wildfires set records by burning 7.8 million hectares of forest and releasing about 3 billion tons of CO₂—far exceeding emissions from global aviation and tropical deforestation the year prior.
Climate change is one of the main contributing factors, but not the only one. Firestorms are driven by a combination of climate, environmental, and human factors. Poor land management, such as deforestation, inadequate firebreaks, and flammable monoculture plantations, increases fire risks. Human activities, including arson, accidental ignitions, and slash-and-burn agriculture, also contribute to fire outbreaks. Weak fire regulations, insufficient firefighting resources, and delayed climate policies worsen the situation in many areas. All of these allow fires to become more intense and create more damage.
Case Studies of Devastating Firestorms
On January 18, 2003, as the flames neared Canberra, Australia, Tom Bates, watching from a rugby field, captured a stunning sight—a massive “fire tornado”. The dark sky and smoke made it feel like nightfall, as a powerful funnel cloud rose from the flames, the Smithsonian Magazine reported. Bates, in disbelief, filmed the phenomenon, which was unlike anything seen before. It was a fiery, twisting vortex, a rare and terrifying event that would later be known as “pyro-tornadogenesis.”
What Tom Bates and many others didn’t know back then was that “fire tornadoes” would become more frequent.
Nineteen years later Australia experienced another massive firestorm – “Australia’s Black Summer” became the most devastating wildfire season in the country’s history. Massive bushfires scorched over 17 million hectares of land across multiple states, destroyed thousands of homes, and killed at least 33 people, with hundreds more affected by smoke-related illnesses. The fires were fueled by a combination of record-breaking heat, prolonged drought, and strong winds. All of these created conditions for an unprecedented firestorm.
The firestorm, to this extent, is not unique to Australia. In recent years, Hawaii, Portugal, Canada, Greece, California, and other places have been affected.
Two years later, in 2021, the smoke reached the North Pole for the first time in recorded history. Siberia’s Boreal Forest Fires burned over 18.8 million hectares – about two times the size of Ireland. The fires spread rapidly across Siberia’s vast boreal forests, releasing record amounts of carbon emissions and accelerating permafrost thawing. Due to more frequent wildfires, the Arctic tundra, once a crucial carbon sink, is now emitting more CO₂ than it absorbs, Khatuna Gigauri, Associate Professor at the Georgian Institute for Public Affairs told us. The latest Arctic Report Card warns that this shift will accelerate global warming and threaten ecosystems, wildlife, and Indigenous communities.
In August 2023 the Lahaina wildfire tore through Maui, Hawaii, and became the deadliest U.S. wildfire in over a century, killing at least 102 people and displacing thousands. Experts said rising temperatures fueled a flash drought, dried vegetation, and spread flammable invasive grasses, creating perfect wildfire conditions. Climate change also strengthens hurricanes like Dora, whose distant winds helped spread the flames.
In January 2025, a firestorm in the Los Angeles area burnt over 47,000 acres. Climate-driven “weather whiplash”—intense wet periods fostering vegetation growth followed by prolonged drought—created a tinderbox, while invasive grasses acted as highly flammable fuel.
Last year, Chile experienced the worst firestorm in over a decade that killed at least 131 people, 370 are still missing. “It was like a tornado of fire,” a local resident told the Telegraph.uk. “In five minutes, you couldn’t see more than half a meter in front of you. Everyone was shouting, calling for their family. People died on the streets, in their cars.” A heat wave pushed Santiago’s temperature to 37°C (nearly 100°F), drying out wood and making it highly flammable. This allowed fires to spread faster and burn more intensely. Experts warn that even a small temperature rise can turn a mild fire season into a severe one.
All of these firestorms serve as a stark reminder that without action, wildfire seasons will only grow more devastating.
The Future of Firestorms: Innovation and International Cooperation
Predicting firestorms is tough because fires can start anytime, anywhere.
Forecasters must consider many factors to understand how fast a fire will spread and how it might affect communities. That’s where technological innovations might come into play.
“If we can fly to the moon in the 1960s, surely we can work out how to find these fires…we have so many different types of technology now,” Dr. Prinsley Head of Disaster Solutions at the Australian National University’s Institute for Climate, Energy & Disaster Solutions (ICEDS) said in an interview.
One such technological advancement is the LightningCast AI model, developed by John Cintineo at the University of Wisconsin’s CIMSS which enhances fire weather forecasting by predicting lightning strikes—one of the leading causes of wildfires. It processes real-time satellite data from NOAA’s GOES-R satellites, using machine learning to detect patterns and forecast potential lightning activity within the next hour.
“AI has the potential to be a game changer in a number of ways, including early fire detection, lightning prediction, forecasting fire spread and behavior, mapping fire perimeters and assessing wildfire risk prior to ignition,” Mike Pavolonis, a physical scientist with the NOAA/NESDIS Center for Satellite Applications and Research told the Space.
One of the newest editions to AI development in terms of fire management is AI-powered cube satellites that can detect bushfires from space much faster than traditional methods. The Kanyini satellite, led by the University of South Australia, processes images onboard, reducing data size and energy use while spotting fires early. This means emergency teams can respond sooner and ultimately prevent more damage.
“We need to be able to find those fires when they’re tiny and immediately when they start so they don’t have a chance to grow. As soon as they get a chance to grow in those catastrophic fire conditions, you’ll definitely get firestorms, and with them – huge amounts of damage,” Dr. Prinsley explained.
The L.A. fires have further accelerated efforts to enhance wildfire detection. Launching in 2025, Google’s FireSat leverages AI and infrared sensors to spot fires as small as 5×5 meters, updating every 20 minutes. It ensures both high-resolution imaging and frequent updates.
Once the fires start, controlling them becomes an incredibly challenging task. Projects like FireAId, led by the World Economic Forum, use AI to create risk maps that help allocate resources more effectively. Similarly, researchers in Indonesia and Finland are developing AI models to predict fire risk and guide prevention strategies.
AI is not the only tool that scientists are working on. At the Australian National University Dr. Prinsley and her team are developing water gliders. The idea is to use a cargo plane flying high above the weather, much like a regular airplane, to drop “water gliders”—disposable drones filled with water and potentially fire-suppressing materials—onto a fire. These gliders travel at speeds of up to 400 kilometers per hour. When they approach a fire, a parachute deploys, slowing their descent, and the water is released to help put out the flames. This system could be more effective and safer than current methods of firefighting from the air, as it reduces the risks to pilots who typically fly low over fires.
Dr. Prinsley’s team is also working on scout drones to detect and respond to fires triggered by lightning strikes, particularly in remote areas. These drones are equipped with thermal sensors and can fly long distances, even at night, providing a more cost-effective, safer, and quicker alternative to traditional methods like helicopters.
While technology is crucial in combating wildfires, international collaboration is just as important. Climate agreements play a critical role in reducing fire risk. They promote global cooperation on climate change mitigation, encouraging countries to adopt policies aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions and enhancing resilience to extreme weather events, including firestorms. These agreements also foster collaboration in areas such as technology sharing, scientific research, and resource mobilization to address climate-related challenges.
On his first day back in office, President Trump signed an executive order to reinitiate the U.S.’s withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement – his second attempt to exit the pact. The previous exit also halted critical financial support for developing countries’ climate efforts and led to domestic environmental rollbacks. Experts think the latest withdrawal could similarly damage global climate cooperation and encourage other nations to scale back their commitments.
Meanwhile, firestorms lead to significant economic and human costs, including widespread infrastructure destruction and a major impact on the insurance industry due to the high volume of claims. For example, an October 2023 study estimates that wildfires cost the U.S. between $394 to $893 billion each year.
In addition to the economic losses, wildfire smoke has been linked to thousands of premature deaths and increased healthcare costs. A study projected that wildfire smoke could lead to between 4,000 and 9,000 premature deaths annually in the U.S., costing between $36 billion and $82 billion in health care. Researchers have also calculated that in Canada, during a particularly smoky period in June 2023, smoke-related healthcare costs alone amounted to $1.28 billion. Evacuations and displacement of communities create long-term recovery challenges, often taking years to rebuild.
Dr. Prinsley thinks we need “to shift the way that we think about fire management, from just responding to fires when they happen to proactively preventing them before they start”. Her opinion was echoed by UNEP in 2022 when the report called for a fundamental shift in wildfire spending, prioritizing prevention and preparedness over reaction.
Wildfires and climate change intensify each other, creating longer, hotter fire seasons and destroying carbon-rich ecosystems. They also threaten biodiversity, public health, and economies—particularly in low-income nations struggling with recovery costs. Stronger policies, scientific monitoring, technological progress, and international cooperation are essential.
“Just like during COVID, where researchers, the public, and the private sector worked together to find solutions, we need a similar international effort for fire management,” Dr. Prinsley explained.
“We really need to treat fighting fires like fighting wars.”
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